Market
Memos from Howard Marks: Is it a Bubble?As we head into 2026, investors are wondering, “Is the economic glass half full or half empty?” We believe the answer is “both.”
On the surface, market conditions appear encouraging, and equities continued to climb in the third quarter. But take a second look and there are signs of concern—from slowing growth to extended equity valuations—that temper enthusiasm.
In the latest Alts Quarterly, we discuss the 2026 outlook for alternative investment assets and why we believe they could play an essential role for investors. Economic and market uncertainty underscores the case for alternative investing, which can help diversify portfolios, boost income streams, hedge inflation and strengthen returns.
Physical AI and advanced manufacturing are the natural next step in the ongoing modernization of industrial companies. Successful implementation would augment human capability, enabling businesses to operate at new levels of precision, adaptability and efficiency. We believe that implementing AI tools today can ensure that companies realize AI’s full potential tomorrow, positioning them to play a leading role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Access to algorithms is important, but the real differentiator will be the ability to re-engineer workflows, align people and modernize systems so that AI can scale rapidly when capabilities mature.
Along with operational know-how with industry-leading access to the technology value chain, AI can evolve from a tool of incremental efficiency into a driver of lasting transformation—unlocking growth, resilience and long-term advantages for investors and portfolio companies alike.
As we look towards 2026, we believe the outlook for infrastructure remains attractive. The sector has historically delivered stable and growing results across multiple market cycles over the past decades, and now it stands at the intersection of powerful global forces—digitalization, decarbonization and deglobalization. Each is accelerating a structural investment cycle that is expanding in both scope and scale as institutional allocations to the asset class rise, providing the funding to that will build out the backbone of the global economy.
As we enter 2026, credit is flowing, liquidity is returning, and investors are recalibrating strategies for a commercial real estate market that is increasingly open for business.
As a result, disciplined, selective investors may find opportunities to deploy capital into high-quality assets, businesses and management teams, in attractive geographies and sectors – prospects that are not always accessible.
These assets benefit from experienced owner-operators who drive value creation through thoughtful, hands-on business plans. Deals are made at entry and measured at exit, but much of the value of a successful investment is earned during the hold period.
In other words, operations matter, especially as we enter the next phase of the real estate cycle.