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Memos from Howard Marks: A Layman Thinks About AI
For illustrative and informational purposes only and do not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or related financial instruments.
1. Return vs. Expected Annualized Volatility Chart
For the period January 31, 2013, through March 31, 2026. For the return vs. volatility calculation, the following quarterly data is used; U.S. Treasuries is represented by Bloomberg US Aggregate Index, Direct Lending is represented by Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, Multi-Asset Credit refers to sub-investment grade credit strategies, and represents the historical performance of the liquid credit investments within the Oaktree Diversified Income Strategy, excluding private credit investments. Asset-Backed Finance refers to private asset-backed finance transactions and may include a range of risk/return profiles. It is represented by a synthetic quarterly gross return series in order to present a private asset-backed finance illustrative analysis derived from investment-level performance information and does not represent actual quarterly portfolio results or any index. Because historical quarterly valuations and complete dated cash flows were unavailable, each investment’s reported lifetime return was allocated smoothly over an estimated holding period and aggregated into a quarterly index beginning in 2010. Actual performance may have varied materially from the synthetic results, and the series should not be used to evaluate volatility, correlation, drawdowns, beta, Sharpe ratios, or other risk measures that depend on observed periodic returns. Source: Bloomberg, Cliffwater, Oaktree.
2. Portfolio Characteristics
For illustrative purposes only. Barometer information has been prepared based on Brookfield’s internal research, and certain information is based on various assumptions made by Brookfield, any of which may prove to be incorrect. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. The barometers are intended to illustrate, on a relative basis, how the general liquidity, yield potential and diversification characteristics of a credit allocation may shift as exposure to Direct Lending, Multi-Asset Credit and Asset-Backed Finance changes. The readings reflect qualitative views regarding the relative characteristics of each asset class. The scores, assumptions and relative weightings underlying the barometers are inherently subjective, may be adjusted at any time without notice, and reflect relative positioning across these three asset classes only. The barometers are not a recommendation, do not constitute investment advice, and are not a prediction or guarantee of the actual liquidity, yield or risk of any asset class, allocation, or investment. Source: Brookfield.
3. Multi-Asset Credit: Approximate Market Size ($ Trillions)
Reflects the latest data available at the time of this research. High Yield Bonds is represented by S&P U.S. Dollar Global High Yield Corporate Bond Index (data as of June 2926), Senior Loans is represented by S&P UBS Leveraged Loan (data as of May 2026), Corporate Structured Credit data from Morningstar report (as of June 2026), Direct Lending data from Preqin and includes direct lending asset under management and dry powder (As of September 2025), Real Estate Debt is represented by Dow Jones Global Select Real Estate Securities Corporate Bond Index (data as of June 2026), Convertible Bonds is represented by FTSE Qualified Global Convertible Index (data as of June 2026), Emerging Markets Debt is represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Index (data as of June 2026), and Investment Grade is represented by MSCI Global IG Corporate Bond Index (data as of May 2026). Source: S&P, Morningstar, Preqin, Dow Jones, FTSE, MSCI.
4. Credit Index Performance
For the period January 31, 2013, through December 31, 2025. Reflects the longest full-year time period available for all indexes shown. Corporate Structured Credit is represented by JP Morgan CLO 2.0 BB Post-Crisis Index, Direct Lending by Cliffwater Direct Lending Index, Convertible Bonds by FTSE Qualified Global Convertible Index, Emerging Markets Debt by JP Morgan Corporate Broad CEMBI Diversified High Yield Index, Global High Yield as ICE BofA Global High Yield Index , Real Estate Debt reflects Bloomberg US CMBS 2.0 Baa Index, Global Senior Loans as Morningstar Global Leveraged Loan Index, Multi-Asset Index reflects a custom index blend consisting of 25.0% Direct Lending,18.0% Global Senior Loans, 16.9% Global High Yield, 11.3% Real Estate Debt, 11.3% Corporate Structured Credit, 3.8% Emerging Markets Debt, 5.6% European High Yield represented by ICE BofA Global High Yield European Issuers Non-Financial Excluding Russia Index (HQSC), 4.5% European Senior Loans represented by S&P UBS Western European Leveraged Loan Index, and 3.8% Convertible Bonds. Source: Bloomberg, Cliffwater, FTSE, ICE BofA, JPMorgan, S&P UBS, Morningstar.
Important Disclosures
All investing involves risk. The value of an investment will fluctuate over time, and an investor may gain or lose money, or the entire investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
As an asset class, private credit comprises a large variety of different debt instruments. While each has its own risk and return profile, private credit assets generally have increased risk of default, due to their typical opportunistic focus on companies with limited funding options, in comparison with their public equivalents. Because private credit usually involves lending to below-investment-grade or non-rated issuers, yield on private credit assets is increased in return for taking on increased risk.
Asset back securities are subject to greater levels of credit risk, call risk and liquidity risks which may cause their values to decline. Asset-backed securities are complex investments and not suitable for all investors.
The information contained herein is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities or related financial instruments. This material discusses broad market, industry or sector trends, or other general economic or market conditions, and it is being provided on a confidential basis.
It is not intended to provide an overview of the terms applicable to any products sponsored by Brookfield Corporation and its affiliates (together, “Brookfield”). Information and views are subject to change without notice. Some of the information provided herein has been prepared based on Brookfield’s internal research, and certain information is based on various assumptions made by Brookfield, any of which may prove to be incorrect. Brookfield may not have verified (and disclaims any obligation to verify) the accuracy or completeness of any information included herein, including information that has been provided by third parties, and you cannot rely on Brookfield as having verified any of the information. The information provided herein reflects Brookfield’s perspectives and beliefs as of the date of this material.
Opinions expressed herein are current opinions of Brookfield, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, and are subject to change without notice. Brookfield, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, assumes no responsibility to update such information or to notify clients of any changes. Any outlooks, forecasts or portfolio weightings presented herein are as of the date appearing on this material only and are also subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and the value of investments and the income derived from those investments can fluctuate.
Certain information in this tool is or is based on the calculation of hypothetical performance. Hypothetical performance is based on certain market and investment assumptions and does not represent performance that any investor actually attained. The hypothetical performance used in this tool is based on certain criteria and assumptions concerning the portfolio and the markets as a whole. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and are unlikely to be realized. In addition, the hypothetical performance is calculated based on the assumptions that the investment could be purchased or sold at the time they were recommended at the prevailing market price. Hypothetical performance is subject to certain risks and limitations. For example, hypothetical performance data may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors may have had on the decision-making process if client funds were actually managed in the manner shown. Changes in the assumptions may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. Other periods selected (if data had been available) may have different results, including losses. In addition, the hypothetical performance does not reflect the impact of uninvested cash, which may further reduce returns.
Index Disclosures
The indexes are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. Indices do not reflect the impact of transaction costs, management and other investment-entity fees and expenses or the costs associated with raising capital or being a public company, which lower returns.
Index Provider Disclosures
The quoted indexes within this publication are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. There may be material factors relevant to any such comparison, such as differences in volatility and also regulatory and legal restrictions between the indexes shown and any investment in a Brookfield strategy, composite or fund. Brookfield obtained all index data from third-party index sponsors and believes the data to be accurate; however, Brookfield makes no representation regarding its accuracy. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Brookfield does not own or participate in the construction or day-to-day management of the indexes referenced in this document. The index information provided is for your information only and does not imply or predict that a Brookfield product will achieve similar results. This information is subject to change without notice. The indexes referenced in this document do not reflect any fees, expenses, sales charges or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The index sponsors permit use of their indexes and related data on an “as is” basis, make no warranties regarding same, do not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of their index or any data included in, related to or derived therefrom, and assume no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing. The index sponsors have no liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential or other damages (including loss of profits). The index sponsors do not sponsor, endorse or recommend Brookfield or any of its products or services. Unless otherwise noted, all indexes are total-return indexes.
Index Definitions
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
S&P U.S. Dollar Global High Yield Corporate Bond Index seeks to track the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated, high-yield corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic and Eurobond markets. Qualifying securities must have a below-investment-grade rating (based on the lowest of S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s, and Fitch) and maturities of one or more months.
S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index measures the market-value-weighted performance of the investable universe of USD-denominated leveraged loans.
Dow Jones Global Select Real Estate Securities Corporate Bond Index is designed to measure the performance of corporate debt issued globally by real estate companies.
FTSE Qualified Global Convertible Index is a total return index designed to measure the performance of the investable global convertible bond market. Eligible securities may be investment grade, non-investment grade, or unrated, may have fixed or floating coupons, and must meet minimum issue-size requirements; individual issuers are capped at 4% at the start of each month.
MSCI Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Index is a rules-based fixed income index designed to measure the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds issued by emerging markets corporate issuers.
MSCI Global IG Corporate Bond Index is a fixed income index that tracks the performance of investment-grade corporate bonds issued by companies across developed markets.
J.P. Morgan CLO 2.0 BB Post-Crisis Index is a benchmark sub-index of the broader J.P. Morgan Collateralized Loan Obligation Index (CLOIE) that tracks the performance and pricing of BB-rated debt tranches issued by post-crisis U.S. Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs).
Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) seeks to measure the unlevered, gross-of-fee performance of U.S. middle-market corporate loans, as represented by the asset-weighted performance of the underlying assets of business development companies (BDCs), including both exchange-traded and unlisted BDCs, subject to certain eligibility requirements.
JP Morgan Corporate Emerging Market Bond High Yield Index (CEMBI HY) is a global, liquid corporate emerging markets index that tracks U.S.-denominated corporate bonds (high yield subset only) issued by emerging markets entities.
ICE BofA Global High Yield Index tracks the performance of below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in major domestic or euro-bond markets.
Bloomberg US CMBS 2.0 Baa Index is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index that measures the performance of Baa-rated (investment-grade, lower-medium tier) commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issued in the United States since 2010.
Morningstar Global Leveraged Loan Index is a fixed-weighted benchmark designed to track the performance of more than 1,800 institutional leveraged loans issued across the U.S. and European loan markets.
ICE BofA Global High Yield European Issuers Non-Financial 3% Constrained, Ex Russia Index is a sub-index that contains all securities in the broader index except those from Financial issuers or with Russia as their country of risk but caps issuer exposure at 3%. The index is rebalanced monthly. The index is USD Hedged.
S&P UBS Western European Leveraged Loan Index is designed to mirror the investable universe of the Western European leveraged loan market. The index includes loans denominated in U.S. dollars and Western European currencies. Loans must be rated Moody's/S&P of Baa1/BBB+ or lower, have a minimum initial spread of Libor + 125 bps, and be a funded loan. This index is EUR Hedged for the European Senior Loan Composite and USD Hedged for the European senior loan component within Oaktree’s Global Credit strategy.
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